Quick summary
Bitcoin trades around $79,500; over 55 percent of supply sits in unlabeled addresses
Strive boosts treasury to 43,000 BTC while old coins move less and stay dormant
A $68 million Derive options position targets post‑election upside around November sixth expiry
ETFs see small net outflows, price holds long‑term uptrend but short‑term momentum remains soft
Bitcoin trades at $79,492 at about 07:17 UTC on October 27, 2026, 37% below its $126,156 all-time high. BTC closed between $80,000 and $81,100 for four straight days, holding the line flagged in the October 26 Read on AI bug rules and the midterm break. Galaxy Research mapped who holds the supply and found more than half of it with no known owner. Strive kept buying, and one options trader rearranged a $68 million bet around the weeks after the November 3 vote.
Bitcoin Ownership: 55% of Supply Has No Known Owner
Galaxy Research published a snapshot of who holds Bitcoin’s roughly 20.1 million mined coins, and most of the answer carries no name:
The unlabeled majority: About 11.1 million BTC, roughly 55% of supply, sits in addresses Galaxy cannot tie to an exchange, fund, government or other known holder, per CoinDesk.
The named 45%: Exchanges, the BlackRock-led ETFs, the U.S. government and the Patoshi-pattern miner group linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. That last group alone holds about 1.12 million BTC.
Two readings: Galaxy’s Alex Thorn sees the unlabeled pile as evidence that self-custody is still widespread, possibly holding most of the supply. Xapo Bank reads it as proof that individuals arrived a decade before institutions did.
The honest caveat: The same pool includes lost coins, early coins from miners other than Satoshi, and institutions Galaxy has not identified, such as OTC desks or custody spread across many addresses. Unlabeled does not automatically mean an individual holder.
Old coins move less: In the same report, Galaxy found coins untouched for at least five years moved about 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, per The Block. That is down from 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024. Spot ETFs and treasury companies absorbed much of what did move.
Strive keeps buying: Strive added 6,182 BTC between October 17 and 23 for about $511 million, per The Block. That took its holdings to 43,000 BTC and fourth place among public companies, behind Strategy, Metaplanet and Twenty One. Treasury companies face their own test next month, covered in Coinjuice’s analysis of the MSCI index review for Strategy.
Fed Week: A $68M Options Bet Targets the Post-Vote Window
The spot price is still, but the options market is busy arranging for what comes after the Fed and the vote:
The trade: A single wallet on the decentralized options venue Derive bought 800 contracts of $90,000 calls expiring November 6. That is about $68 million in face value and the largest open Bitcoin position on Derive, per CoinDesk.
Less bold than it looks: Selling other calls, expiring October 30 and March 2027, paid for the bet and left about $940,000 in hand. Those sold calls lose if BTC tops $90,000 before October 30 or $100,000 by March 2027, so the bet is on a rise in the week after the vote.
Odds moved, modestly: Derive’s market-implied chance of BTC above $100,000 by Christmas rose to 12% from 9.7% a week earlier. The chance of a drop below $70,000 fell to 11% from 15.6%.
The calendar: The Fed decides on October 28, with CME FedWatch pricing about a 90% chance of no change. That pause would not mean easier money: the Fed raised rates in September to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, and FedWatch gives a December hike about 68% odds. Third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation follow on October 29.
Galaxy’s line in the sand: Galaxy Research argued the bear market is over, after five straight weekly closes above the 50-week average through October 18. Galaxy said its view would be challenged by a weekly close below that average, which it puts at $76,540, followed by no recovery within a month, per The Block. This is the firm’s position, not a consensus.
Bitcoin is moving into patient hands while price waits on the Fed. Optimists are paying for upside after the vote, but pricier puts show the market has not stopped buying insurance.
ETF Flows: A Positive Monday Inside a Negative Week
ETF | 24h Flow (Oct 26) | 7D Flow (Oct 20 to 26) |
IBIT | +$110.3M | +$10.8M |
FBTC | $0.0M | −$33.0M |
ARKB | $0.0M | −$99.6M |
GBTC | $0.0M | +$3.1M |
Four-fund total | +$110.3M | −$118.7M |
Source: DefiLlama ETF flow data, latest reported flow day October 26, 2026. The 7D window covers the five trading days from October 20 to 26.
A Monday buyer: IBIT took in $110.3M on October 26, the only fund of the four with a flow that day.
The week stays red: Across October 20 to 26, the four funds lost a net $118.7M, about −$23.7M per trading day, with ARKB and FBTC carrying most of it.
Technicals: BTC Holds Its Long-Term Trend as Momentum Fades
Indicator (1D) | Reading | What it means |
200-day EMA (long-term trend) | $76,423, rising; Oct 26 close 4.69% above | The main daily uptrend is still in place |
Bollinger Bands (position) | Oct 26 close about 0.2% above the lower band | Price is sitting on the bottom edge of its usual range |
Bollinger squeeze | Yes: band width 5.3% vs a 60-day median of 8.2% | Price swings have gone quiet; a larger move often follows, direction unknown |
MACD (momentum) | −$387, weakening | Short-term momentum is below zero and fading |
RSI-14 daily | 41.5 | Just above 40, a level Coinjuice watches as support or resistance |
In short: the long-term trend is intact, short-term momentum is soft, and volatility is compressed with no direction yet. No divergence shows on a one-day comparison.
Moving Averages Across Timeframes
Timeframe | 20-period | 50-period | 200-period |
1D | $82,002 (price −2.43%) | $81,805 (price −2.20%) | $72,991 (price +9.62%) |
3D | $81,063 (price −1.30%) | $71,548 (price +11.83%) | |
1W | $72,376 (price +10.55%) | $76,064 (price +5.19%) |
Source: Simple averages calculated on CryptoQuant daily closes (all exchanges, BTC/$spot), against the October 26 close of $80,009, with thanks to CryptoQuant for the data. Percentages show price versus each average.
3D bars are counted back from October 26. Weekly bars close on Sundays, so the 1W row closes through October 25. Empty cells need more history than is available.
Galaxy’s 50-week figure of $76,540 comes from a different data set. For technical analysis from a wide range of analysts, see the CryptoQuant QuickTake community
Coinjuice Lens: Bitcoin Ownership
Galaxy’s map puts a number on a question Coinjuice returns to often: how much of the 21 million cap is truly in circulation. Some unknown share of the 11.1 million unlabeled coins is gone for good. Every lost coin shrinks the float that ETFs, Strive and other treasuries compete for. Bitcoin is moving into patient hands while price waits on the Fed.
The next tests are the Fed decision on October 28 at 2:00 PM ET, then third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation on October 29. After that comes the midterm vote on November 3 and the Derive calls’ expiry on November 6.
Readers looking to prepare for a Fed-week break from the $80K range can start with the Coinjuice ebook, Bitcoin Trading Without Leverage, now 15% off with the code TRADE15OFF, or go deeper with a Coinjuice subscription, currently 30% off the annual plan, where we start and complete trades and you will learn to snipe them independently.
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News Behind Today’s Read
Over 11 million BTC can’t be linked to any known owner (CoinDesk). Source for the 11.1 million unlabeled coins, the 1.12 million Patoshi holding, the Xapo Bank view and the caveats.
A $68 million BTC price bet is targeting a surge to $90,000 after U.S. mid-term vote (CoinDesk). Source for the Derive trade and its financing, the Christmas odds and the Deribit put pricing.
Galaxy says bitcoin bear market is over: now is the time to buy and hold (The Block). Source for the 50-week close count, the dormant-coin data and the $76,540 invalidation line.
Strive closes in on second-largest corporate bitcoin treasury with $511 million purchase (The Block). Source for the 6,182 BTC purchase, the 43,000 BTC total and the public-company ranking.
Bitcoin ETFs rebound with $301 million weekly inflow (Cointelegraph). Source for the weekly inflow and the $774 million late-week exit.
Continue the read: Oct. 26 · Oct. 24 · Oct. 23
Market Snapshot
Asset | Price | Distance from ATH / reference |
BTC | $79,492 | 36.99% below ATH ($126,156) |
ETH | $2,299 | 53.52% below ATH ($4,946) |
ETH/BTC | 0.02892 | Spot ratio, DefiLlama |
DeFi TVL | $88.04B | Base TVL, DefiLlama |
BTC share of five-asset basket | 75.52% | BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XRP; narrow proxy, not market-wide dominance |
Data as of October 27, 2026, about 07:17 UTC, DefiLlama.
This article was developed with the support of artificial intelligence tools as part of Coinjuice’s editorial process and reviewed by our editorial team before publication.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
FAQ
Who owns most of the Bitcoin supply?
No single group can be named for the majority. Galaxy Research’s October 2026 snapshot found about 11.1 million BTC, roughly 55% of the mined supply, in addresses not tied to any known exchange, fund, government or company. The named 45% includes exchanges, spot ETFs, the U.S. government and about 1.12 million BTC in the Patoshi-pattern group linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. Galaxy reads the unlabeled share as widespread self-custody, but it also includes lost coins and unidentified institutions.
Is the Bitcoin bear market over?
Galaxy Research argued in October 2026 that it is, citing five straight weekly closes above the 50-week average through October 18 and slower selling from long-dormant coins. That is one firm’s view, not a consensus. Galaxy said a weekly close below its 50-week figure of $76,540 that does not recover within a month would challenge the call. On October 27, BTC traded near $79,500, about 37% below its all-time high.
What does the $90,000 options bet on Derive mean?
A single wallet bought 800 Bitcoin call contracts at a $90,000 strike expiring November 6, about $68 million in face value, per CoinDesk. It funded the position by selling other calls and collected about $940,000 net. Those short calls remain open, so the trade reads more as a repositioning toward the days after the November 3 midterm vote than a fresh all-in bet. Near-dated puts still cost more than calls on Deribit, so the wider market continues to pay for downside protection.
How did the largest spot Bitcoin ETFs perform in flows between October 20 and 26?
Across October 20 to 26, the four largest spot Bitcoin funds had a net outflow of about $118.7 million, or roughly $23.7 million per trading day, with ARKB and FBTC leading the outflows. On October 26 specifically, only IBIT saw activity, taking in about $110.3 million in inflows.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
