Bitcoin November Seasonality: 13 Years of Data

Bitcoin November Seasonality: 13 Years of Data

Bitcoin finished November higher in eight of thirteen years, but the gains were uneven. The biggest gain arrived in 2013 (+449.28%), 2017 (+54.97%) and 2024 (+37.49%). Four of the five down years lost more than 15%. 

Within the month, the first week and the final three days led, while the middle of the month was softer. Past averages do not predict any future November.

How The Numbers Are Calculated

• Table 1: Price change from the November 1 open to the November 30 close.

• Table 2: Price change from the close of each week’s first day to the close of each week’s last day.

• Table 3: Price change from the close of each block’s first day to the close of each block’s last day.

• Averages in all three tables: A simple average of the yearly results, not compounded. 2013 is shown separately because one year skews the average.

Table 1: The Monthly November Bitcoin Read: 2013 to 2025

Data covers the 13 completed Novembers from 2013 to 2025. Source: DefiLlama. For 2013 to 2022, DefiLlama records one price per day, so open, close, high, low and the weekly and three day closes come from daily prices. For 2023 to 2025, the figures use true daily open, high, low and close.

• Average change: +40.45% across all 13 years, and +6.39% without 2013.

• Median: +8.78% across all 13 years, and +5.29% without 2013.

• Record: 8 up and 5 down (7 up and 5 down without 2013).

• Best year: 2013, up 449%. Without 2013, 2017 led (+55%), followed by 2024 (+37%).

• Worst year: 2018, down 32%, followed by 2022 (down 20%) and 2025 (down 17%).

Table 2: The Weekly Read: Averaged Across All 13 Years

Weeks 2 and 3 look positive only because of 2013. Without 2013, both turn negative. Nov. 29 to 30 is a two day leftover, so the period cannot be compared directly with the full weeks.

Table: 3 The Three-Day Read: Averaged Across All 13 Years

November has 30 days, so ten three day blocks cover the whole month.

What the finer view adds:

• Week 1’s gain builds over the first six days. Days 1 to 3 average +1.87% and days 4 to 6 average +2.93%, each measured on its own.

• Mid month weakness is narrow. Days 13 to 15 (-0.41%) and days 19 to 21 (-1.11%) are the only negative blocks in both versions of the data. Days 19 to 21 rose in just 5 of 13 years, while days 28 to 30 rose in 9 of 13.

Bitcoin November Seasonality Explained

Bitcoin has risen in November more often than not, but the sample is small and the spread between years is wide.

• Thirteen years is a relatively short sample, and one year dominates the average. 2013 lifts the average from +6.39% to +40.45%, so the median is the better guide. Four of the five down Novembers lost more than 15%.

• Monthly returns hide the swings along the way. In 2024, price ranged about 49% from the month’s low to the high, and the month finished up 37%. In 2025, price traded between $111,130 and $81,051, a 37% range measured from the low, and the month finished down 17%.

Prior seasonality reports: Bitcoin’s September seasonality and October seasonality reports cover the same 13 years with the same tables.

Conclusion: What The Numbers Do Not Say

No data can predict what Bitcoin will do in November 2026. Across the 13 completed Novembers from 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin finished higher in 8. The first week and the final three days were the strongest stretches, and the middle of the month was weaker once 2013 was removed.

Market conditions, ETF flows, interest rates and Bitcoin adoption change every year, so the pattern is background only.

Disclosure: AI-based research tools assisted with compiling and analyzing the data.

Further reading: for a longer view on Bitcoin’s durability, see Coinjuice’s 900-year review of Bitcoin’s odds of lasting. For traders sizing positions through a volatile stretch, Coinjuice’s guide to trading Bitcoin without leverage covers one approach to staying in a position through a drawdown. The full research library and subscription pricing are on Coinjuice’s pricing page.