Quick summary
Bitcoin October returns from 2013 to 2025 were positive in ten of thirteen years
Average October change was plus 19.10 percent, with wide swings between best and worst years
Gains historically clustered in middle weeks and days 25 to 27, early days softer
Data is descriptive only and cannot predict Bitcoin’s behavior in October 2026
Bitcoin closed higher in ten of the thirteen Octobers from 2013 through 2025. That record has earned October the informal nickname "Uptober." A closer look at the weekly and three day results shows the strength was not evenly spread. Bitcoin has tended to build gains steadily through the middle and later weeks of the month, with the final three-day tail averaging broadly flat.
These averages describe what happened in the past. They do not predict what will happen in any future October.
How The Numbers Are Calculated
Monthly return: Price change from October 1st to October 31st, open to close.
Weekly and three day return: Price change from the start to the end of that block, close to close.
Average: Each block's thirteen yearly results are averaged with a simple average, not compounded.
The Monthly October Bitcoin Read: 2013 to 2025
Year | Open | Close | High | Low | % Change |
2013 | $132.55 | $203.88 | $206.78 | $123.07 | +53.81% |
2014 | $380.90 | $336.59 | $398.29 | $325.11 | -11.63% |
2015 | $237.74 | $312.28 | $325.80 | $237.26 | +31.36% |
2016 | $614.06 | $698.58 | $715.41 | $609.24 | +13.76% |
2017 | $4,347.58 | $6,368.65 | $6,368.65 | $4,231.46 | +46.49% |
2018 | $6,651.32 | $6,337.38 | $6,652.03 | $6,221.58 | -4.72% |
2019 | $8,271.29 | $9,171.87 | $9,502.02 | $7,433.92 | +10.89% |
2020 | $10,770.88 | $13,549.54 | $13,661.08 | $10,528.65 | +25.80% |
2021 | $43,859.33 | $61,837.26 | $66,221.45 | $43,859.33 | +40.99% |
2022 | $19,467.93 | $20,622 | $20,801 | $19,060.70 | +5.93% |
2023 | $26,966.12 | $34,672 | $35,066 | $26,570 | +28.58% |
2024 | $63,353 | $70,265 | $73,562 | $58,935 | +10.91% |
2025 | $114,041 | $109,573.91 | $126,079.89 | $103,856.27 | -3.92% |
Data covers the thirteen completed Octobers from 2013 through 2025, October 2026 had not yet occurred as of this writing and is excluded. Source: DefiLlama.
Average change: plus 19.10%.
Median: plus 13.76%.
Best year: 2013, up 53.81%, with 2017 close behind at plus 46.49%.
Worst year: 2014, down 11.63%.
Record: ten higher, three lower.
The Weekly Read: Averaged Across All 13 Years
Week of October | Days | Avg % Change | Note |
Week 1 | 1 to 7 | +1.10% | modest positive open |
Week 2 | 8 to 14 | +4.68% | strong week |
Week 3 | 15 to 21 | +4.86% | strongest week historically |
Week 4 | 22 to 28 | +3.90% | also strong |
Week 5 | 29 to 31 | -0.05% | partial three day period, not directly comparable |
October runs 31 days, one more than September, so its final block is a three day tail rather than a two day one.
The Three-Day Read: Averaged Across All 13 Years
Period | Days | Avg % Change |
1 | 1 to 3 | -0.66% |
2 | 4 to 6 | +1.82% |
3 | 7 to 9 | +1.30% |
4 | 10 to 12 | +1.88% |
5 | 13 to 15 | +1.32% |
6 | 16 to 18 | +0.34% |
7 | 19 to 21 | +2.11% |
8 | 22 to 24 | +0.07% |
9 | 25 to 27 | +4.08% (strongest block) |
10 | 28 to 30 | +1.57% |
Day 31 | 31 (vs day 30 close) | -0.46% (single leftover day, not directly comparable) |
What the finer view adds: The three day blocks catch two things the weekly numbers alone miss.
Week 1's open is softer than it looks: Week 1 finishes at plus 1.10% overall, but the first three days of the month actually average a loss of 0.66%. The week's full gain is concentrated in days 4 to 7.
Week 4's strength is concentrated, not steady: Week 4 averages plus 3.90%, and much of that historical strength is concentrated in days 25 to 27, at plus 4.08%.
Bitcoin October Seasonality Explained
The pattern is consistent across thirteen years, but the short sample size and the wide swing between individual years mean it should be treated with caution.
Thirteen years is a short sample: Thirteen Octobers show a recurring tendency, but the outcomes range from a 53.81% gain to an 11.63% loss. Coinjuice's 900-year review of Bitcoin's odds of lasting explains why longer timeframes provide stronger evidence. The gap between 2013's plus 53.81% and 2014's minus 11.63%, back to back years, shows how much a single October can differ from the average.
A positive close has still meant a wide intramonth range: In 2021, one of the strongest years in the dataset, October's low sat right at the month's open of $43,859 before the price reached a high of $66,221, then settled off that peak at a close of $61,837. In 2025, the month traded between a low of $103,856 and a high of $126,080, a range of roughly 21%, before finishing the month down 3.92%. A monthly return only captures where Bitcoin began and ended; it can conceal large reversals and drawdowns within the month.
Conclusion: What The Numbers Do Not Say
None of this data can predict what Bitcoin will do in October 2026. It only shows what happened during the thirteen completed Octobers from 2013 through 2025, ten of which ended higher.
Market conditions, ETF flows, interest rates, and Bitcoin adoption change every year. Across this 13-year sample, October finished higher in 10 years. Average returns were strongest in the middle of the month, while the final three days were broadly flat. That context is descriptive only, and it cannot indicate whether October 2026 will follow it.
Disclosure: AI-based research tools assisted with compiling and analyzing the data.
Further reading: for traders considering position size during a historically stronger part of the calendar, Coinjuice's guide to trading Bitcoin without leverage covers one approach to staying in a position through a drawdown rather than being forced out. The full research library and subscription pricing for deeper coverage are available on Coinjuice's pricing page.
FAQ
What is meant by Bitcoin’s October seasonality and the nickname 'Uptober'?
From 2013 through 2025, Bitcoin closed higher in ten out of thirteen Octobers. This tendency for October to finish positive has led to the informal nickname 'Uptober'.
How are the monthly, weekly, and three-day Bitcoin October returns calculated?
The monthly return is the price change from October 1st to October 31st, open to close. Weekly and three-day returns are the price change from the start to the end of each block, close to close. Each block’s thirteen yearly results are combined using a simple average, not compounded.
Which parts of October have historically shown the strongest average returns for Bitcoin?
On a weekly basis, weeks 2, 3, and 4 (days 8–28) have been strong, with week 3 historically the strongest. On a three-day basis, days 25 to 27 form the strongest block with an average gain of 4.08%, while the final three-day tail of the month has averaged broadly flat.
Can this October data be used to predict Bitcoin’s performance in October 2026?
No. The data only describes what happened in the thirteen completed Octobers from 2013 through 2025 and cannot predict what will happen in any future October. Market conditions, ETF flows, interest rates, and Bitcoin adoption change every year.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
