Hot Jobs & Long-Term Buyers

A hot jobs report revived hike bets while long-horizon buyers kept adding Bitcoin.

Bitcoin traded at $76,045 at about 08:10 UTC on November 7, 2026, 39.72% below its $126,156 all-time high, after a November 6 close of $75,792. That leaves price resting on the 50-week average flagged in the November 6 Read. The move from $81,000 back to these levels is covered in the Coinjuice LIVE session on Bitcoin’s 7% drop after hitting $81,000. The latest LIVE analysis can be found here.

October payrolls came in at 165,000 jobs against the 65,000 CoinDesk had flagged, and within hours traders were pricing a December hike at close to 80% again, up from about 70% before the release. Meanwhile a Bitcoin treasury, a central bank and a wealth platform kept adding exposure as ETF holders sold.

Hot Jobs Report: A Payrolls Beat Revives a December Rate Hike

What the October report showed, per CoinDesk:

• The headline: Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 against an estimate of 65,000. September’s 29,000 gain was revised up to 60,000.

• The detail: Unemployment fell to 4.1% against a 4.2% forecast. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year, against 2.9% expected.

• The bond market: The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6.4 basis points to 4.894%.

What it did to rate expectations:

• Before the report: The stock sell-off had pulled the odds of a December hike down to about 70%, from roughly 95% a few weeks earlier, per CoinDesk.

• After the report: Bitcoin Magazine reported December hike odds climbing toward 80%.

• What decides December: CoinDesk notes the next inflation reports, along with whether equities stabilise, will likely matter more to the Fed than one jobs print. The BLS schedule puts October CPI on November 10 and PPI on November 13.

How Bitcoin took it:

• A muted reaction: Bitcoin briefly pushed above $76,100 before settling near $75,500, per Bitcoin Magazine, which attributes most of the week’s damage to equity risk-off rather than the labour data.

• Leverage cleared first: More than $1.27 billion in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated over 24 hours before the release, about $1.1 billion of them bullish bets, per CoinDesk.

• The levels traders watch: Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere sees $73,000 and $68,000 as potential downside targets and says Bitcoin would need to reclaim and hold $80,000 to show renewed strength, per Yahoo Finance.

Coinjuice’s read (interpretation, not reporting):

• Strong data is not the problem itself: A growing economy does not weaken Bitcoin. Higher rates raise the cost of borrowed dollars, and leveraged longs feel that first.

• The AI link: CoinDesk ties part of the week’s selling to the AI trade, a connection examined in Coinjuice’s From Mechanical Calculators to AI: Where Bitcoin Fits.

Long-Term Buyers: Treasuries Keep Adding as ETF Holders Sell

While short-term money left, longer-horizon buyers kept building:

• Strive’s October: Strive acquired 15,124 BTC between October 1 and October 30, per its third-quarter results filed with the SEC. The Block puts its holdings at 43,124 BTC. Company-reported buying does not guarantee future demand.

• A central bank allocation: Kazakhstan’s central bank announced a $90 million investment in Bitcoin-focused ETFs, alongside $100 million across crypto funds, at a conference in Almaty on November 5, per Bloomberg as reported by Galaxy Research.

• A wealth platform: LPL Financial’s spot Bitcoin ETF holdings stood at $261 million at September 30, per its Q3 filing as reported by Crypto Briefing. Those holdings may reflect advisor and client choices rather than LPL’s own view.

• The pattern behind it: Galaxy’s 13F analysis finds that between September 2025 and June 2026, nine macro, multi-strategy and bank trading desks cut about 68,000 BTC of ETF exposure. That is more than the 48,000 BTC net decline across all 2,200 filers, so every other filer, in aggregate, added. Galaxy’s view is that wealth platforms and sovereigns are buying what tactical traders sell.

The ETF tape tells the short-term side:

• The week: All spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $1.282 billion over the five days from November 2 to November 6, with four of five negative, per DefiLlama.

• The latest day: Funds lost $411.9 million on November 6, after $430.2 million on November 5, per DefiLlama, matching Farside.

• One fund, most of the selling: IBIT lost $403.0 million on November 6 and about $1.21 billion over the week, nearly the whole five-session total.

Source: DefiLlama ETF flow data. The 7D window holds five trading sessions.

Technicals: BTC Rests on Its 50-Week Average

Source: DefiLlama completed daily closes through November 6, 2026.

• The 50-week line: The November 6 close sits on the 50-week average, after closing 6.19% above it on November 4.

• Under the 200-day EMA: Price has closed below the rising 200-day EMA on November 5 and November 6, after closing above it on November 4.

• The 40 line: Daily RSI holds below 40 while the 3D and weekly readings stay in the 40 to 50 zone, the split the Coinjuice method watches.

Moving Averages Across Timeframes

Source: Simple averages on CryptoQuant completed closes. Thanks to CryptoQuant for the data. For technical analysis from a wide range of analysts, see the CryptoQuant QuickTake community.

Bitcoin Cohorts: Coins Shift Into 10,000+ BTC Outputs

Source: CryptoQuant UTXO supply distribution, daily data through November 6, 2026. Bands group coins by output size, not by holder.

• The big rotation: The 10k+ band added 59,712 BTC over seven days, mostly on November 1 and 2, while the 1k to 10k and 100 to 1k bands fell by a combined 64,408 BTC. That pattern fits large holders consolidating coins into bigger outputs, which changes packaging, not ownership.

• Smaller holders steady: The 1 to 10 BTC band added 5,475 BTC over seven days and 2,448 BTC over 30 days, through a drawdown from $81,000.

• The 30-day picture: The 100 to 1k band is up 34,732 BTC over 30 days despite the weekly drop, while the 10 to 100 band is down 11,837 BTC.

Coinjuice Lens: Bitcoin Ownership

A rate scare clears leverage and pushes tactical funds out of ETFs. It does not change why a treasury, a central bank or a long-term holder buys. The question for any holder is which group they belong to, and whether their plan survives a December hike. The Coinjuice LIVE session on holding or selling Bitcoin in uncertain times works through that decision around the same 50-week line price is sitting on now. A hot jobs report revived hike bets while long-horizon buyers kept adding Bitcoin.

Readers looking to prepare for a test of the 50-week average can start with the Coinjuice ebook, Bitcoin Trading Without Leverage, now 15% off with the code TRADE15OFF, or go deeper with a Coinjuice subscription, currently 30% off the annual plan, where we start and complete trades and you will learn to snipe them independently.

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News Behind Today’s Read

• Live updates: Bitcoin flatlines under $76,000 as stock bounce loses steam into the close (CoinDesk). Source for the 165,000 payrolls figure, the September revision and the bond market reaction.

• Bitcoin Price Holds Near $75,000 After Hot October Jobs Report (Bitcoin Magazine). Source for December hike odds climbing toward 80% and the intraday price range.

• Strive, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (SEC filing). Source for the 15,124 BTC acquired from October 1 to October 30.

• Kazakhstan Allocates $100m to Crypto Funds as Long-Term Money Accumulates (Galaxy Research). Source for the $90 million Bitcoin ETF allocation and the 13F holder analysis.

• LPL Financial Bitcoin ETF stake rises to $261 million (Crypto Briefing). Source for LPL’s $261 million in spot Bitcoin ETF holdings at September 30.

Continue the read: Nov. 6 · Nov. 5 · Nov. 4 · Nov. 3

Market Snapshot

Data as of November 7, 2026, about 08:10 UTC. Source: DefiLlama.

This article was developed with the support of artificial intelligence tools as part of Coinjuice’s editorial process and reviewed by our editorial team before publication.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.