Quick summary
Bitcoin hit $81,000 exactly, then fell 7% to $76,300 on November 5th
The job is pretty simple at this point: get above and hold $76,800
Limit two could trigger at $74,000, or $72,200 below that
The Fisher says this could be the last shake out
Hey guys, welcome back to Coinjuice Live. So, on the November 4th stream I said if we get above $78,000, expect $81,000. We got to $81,000 exactly.
Then on November 5th, we didn’t bounce at the support line, and we fell 5% in three hours. It kept going after the stream: stocks gave back the whole election rally, and Bitcoin went just under $76,000. If you were leveraged, that hurt. If you had limit orders in place, this is the panic down we were waiting for. And Nvidia fell right into the limit order we set on November 3rd, and after looking at the chart, Bitcoin is still the better hold. So the level to watch now is $74,000-$72,000, the psychological number.
Remember, live viewers are a day ahead of these posts.
What We Covered
Bitcoin: Below the support line. It needs to bounce from here and at a minimum come back above the trend line.
Limit two: A 15% correction takes us there. I’d imagine $74,000, the psychological number. If we get the $73,000s, $72,200 becomes likely.
Fisher oscillator: Almost exactly like June 2020. A 13% fall was enough, then it went up 42%.
RSI: Back in dangerous territory. If 47 holds, Bitcoin momentum will catch or not.
Bitcoin vs gold: The descending wedge was working until it didn’t work. Now I’m bearish: 17, 16 or 14 ounces is likely in play.
Nvidia: Down to the limit order we set on November 3rd. Support around $178, and Bitcoin is still the better hold.
Hype: Cracking out of the ascending wedge. We’re looking for entries anywhere along these lines.
This could likely be the last shake out before we get a nice up move.
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Recorded live Nov 5.
FAQ
What level does Bitcoin need to hold?
$76,000. The job is pretty simple at this point. On October 29th we said up to $81,000, then down all the way in a week to $76,000, and we’re still bullish. We got to $76,300, not $76,900. So Bitcoin needs to bounce from here, and at a minimum come back above the trend line. Update, Nov 6: It broke. Bitcoin fell to $75,463, its lowest level since Sept. 16, and sits around $75,620.
Where are the next limit orders?
There is a chance limit two is going to trigger, and that means we see $74,000. It’s just the psychological number. If we get the $73,000s, then $72,200 becomes likely. It can be $74,000 or $72,000, but not $73,000. Update, Nov 6: Limit two hasn’t triggered yet. The low so far is around $75,460.
Is the worst over?
don’t think what’s going on is the worst. On the Fisher, our three lows line up almost exactly with June 2020, except ours is arguably stronger. Back then a 13% fall was enough, and Bitcoin went up 42%. In 2015 it fell around 25%, then went up 100%. We shouldn’t have a 25% fall.
What’s the bearish scenario?
On the weekly RSI, we’re back in dangerous territory, and this could be a sign that momentum is off. You don’t want to see it go too far down, because then 50 becomes strong resistance. Then all of a sudden you’re within one or two quarters of 2027 and still below this trend line on the RSI.
Is Bitcoin still bullish against gold?
No. We’re seeing a massive confirmation that the descending wedge is over, and gold has become bullish against Bitcoin. We’re already down 3%, so I’m flipping bearish and expecting 17, 16 or 14 ounces. The descending wedge was working until it didn’t work. And that’s information.
What’s the plan for Nvidia?
Yesterday we said we won’t buy here, we’ll wait for a 12% to 15% fall into the limit order. Nvidia is now down to our limit order. Once we reach limit one, we might get our bounce, with support around $178. Even with this fall, Bitcoin is still a better hold than Nvidia, and likely to stay that way until we come into the box. Update, Nov 6: [Nvidia close vs $178]
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
