Quick summary
Midterms and geopolitics make it hard to know: hold or sell?
The descending wedge delivered 78.5 by November 2nd, 3:45 a.m
Bitcoin is holding above the 50-week moving average, around 75 to 76K
So long as we hold the support line, Bitcoin is healthy
Everyone says Bitcoin goes down. Well, Uber’s down 35%.
Is Bitcoin an asset you hold in uncertain times, or one you sell?
You’re watching this after the move. Hit the bell to catch the next one live.
Over the weekend I started drawing out the descending wedge on the 15 mins period. I said at a minimum Bitcoin is going to come to $78.5K in its next breakout, if it respects the descending wedge. It broke out on the 30th of October at 10:00, and the pattern delivered by 2nd November, 3:45 a.m.
Checking Bitcoin Against What the Hedge Fund Guys Are Doing
Bitcoin: It’s holding above the 50-week moving average, around $75k to $76K. Only two days below our support line in 42 days.
Uber: It’s gone down 35%. If RSI cracks, Bitcoin could go on a run against Uber.
Brookfield: If BN finds support by 4th January, we’re looking for BN to be bullish short term against Bitcoin.
Microsoft: It’s bullish (sort of) against Bitcoin, but we don’t really have anything to work with.
Meta: By January 2029, it either crashes 60% against Bitcoin or goes up 147%.
Marriott: It stopped following the fractal in September. I think we get it in reverse: 26% to at least 430.
Hype: Be careful buying at this level. There’s still a gap.
So long as we hold above this support line, I think Bitcoin is healthy.
Recorded live Nov 2.
FAQ
Is Bitcoin an asset you hold in uncertain times, or one you sell?
There’s the midterm election going on, geopolitics and end of the world stuff, so it’s difficult to know. The more I think about it, Bitcoin is a speculative asset, and that’s its strength: you can trade it. It’s frictionless, it’s intangible, and it’s purely built on sentiment. Overall, Bitcoin is still holding well.
What level does Bitcoin need to hold?
The support line. Above it we’re bullish, below it we’re not, and at the moment we’re above it. The 50-week moving average comes in around 75,000 or 76,000, and Bitcoin is holding above it. We only spent two days below the support line over a total of 42 days. Update, Nov 3: [level / where price sits now]
Did the descending wedge play out?
Yes. I said at a minimum Bitcoin is going to come to 78.5 in its next breakout, and it could come by the 31st of October. It broke out on the 30th at 10:00 and delivered by 2nd November, 3:45 a.m. So it got there, just later than the 31st.
Is Bitcoin stronger than Bill Ackman’s stocks?
Overall they’ve all lost so much against Bitcoin. But many of them have broken out of very long resistance after years of hammering at it. Uber’s gone down 35%, Microsoft is bullish against Bitcoin, and Meta either crashes 60% or goes up 147% by January 2029. Bitcoin is not bullish against many of them at the moment.
What happened with Hype?
On the 29th, price was around 79 to 81. I said this is an ascending wedge whether you like it or not, and 85 is a good time to sell. If you buy back in, you’d want to buy at the support line. Be careful at this level, because there’s still a gap price should come down to. Update, Nov 3: [Hype price vs the gap]
Disclaimer
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
