Treasury Buys & ETF Exits

Bitcoin traded at $76,506 at about 06:03 UTC on November 3, 2026, 39% below its $126,156 all-time high. The 15-minute descending wedge broke out on October 30 and reached its $78,500 minimum target at 3:45 a.m. on November 2, as covered in the Coinjuice LIVE session on Bitcoin vs Stocks: whether to hold or sell Bitcoin in uncertain times. Price then gave back the weekend’s gains to close at $76,707 and now sits just above its rising 200-day EMA of about $76,450.

The more useful question today is who is still buying. Treasury buyers paid above the current price while ETF holders sold, splitting the institutional bid.

Treasury Buys: Strategy and Strive Bought Above the Current Price

The October 31 Read showed Strategy spending its record quarter on defending STRC rather than stacking. The first full week of filings since then shows both large treasury buyers back in the market, at prices above where BTC trades now:

• Strategy’s week: Strategy bought 811 BTC for about $65.5 million between October 26 and November 1, at an average of $80,846 per coin, per its 8-K filing. Holdings now total 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451.

• The thin cushion: At $76,506, BTC sits about 1.4% above Strategy’s average cost across all its holdings. It is about 5.4% below the price paid for the latest 811 BTC.

• How it was paid for: Strategy sold about 1.18 million MSTR shares into the market for about $164 million, with $18.62 billion of share capacity still available under that program. Of the $164 million raised, $65.5 million went to bitcoin and $98.5 million to $Cash, per the filing.

• Credit before coins, again: In the same week, Strategy repurchased nearly 2.1 million STRC preferred shares for about $208.2 million from its $Cash reserve. Strategy also drew $43.4 million from its USD Reserve for preferred dividends. The STRC buyback was more than three times the bitcoin purchase.

• The reserve: The USD Reserve stood at $4.79 billion on November 1, below the $5.07 billion reported with Q3 results. USD Cash stood at $132.7 million.

• Strive’s week: Strive bought 124 BTC between October 24 and 30 for about $10 million at an average of $80,526 per coin, bringing holdings to 43,124 BTC, per its SEC filing. CEO Matt Cole said most of it was paid from existing cash, with the first use of the company’s SATS preferred stock sales program.

• The ranking race: Strive sits fourth among public companies, behind Strategy, Metaplanet at 44,000 BTC and Twenty One at 43,514 BTC, per Bitcoin Treasuries data cited by The Block. The week’s purchase was far smaller than the roughly $1.25 billion of bitcoin Strive bought across October.

• The index risk: CoinDesk reports that MSCI has flagged Strategy and Metaplanet as possible exclusion candidates under its new rules for non-operating companies. An exclusion could bring selling from index-tracking funds and weigh on both companies’ ability to raise money for bitcoin. MSCI’s final list has not been published.

ETF Exits: Spot Fund Flows for 2026 Slip to Roughly Flat

Treasury buying reflects the decisions of a handful of boards. ETF flows add up the decisions of many holders, and those pointed the other way:

• The year-to-date hit: The $643.3 million outflow on October 30 was the largest since June 25. It erased about 63.6% of a 2026 net inflow that had stood just over $1 billion, per SoSoValue data reported by CoinDesk. Through November 2, DefiLlama puts the 2026 net flow at +$55.3 million, while Farside data cited by Cointelegraph shows about −$38 million. On either measure, the year’s net inflow is roughly flat.

• Other demand gauges: Bitfire Research told CoinDesk that the Coinbase premium, a gauge of US buying, stayed negative at about −0.18% to −0.27%. It also said total spot Bitcoin ETF assets fell below $100 billion to $98.14 billion. IBIT alone lost $405.3 million on November 2, more than the category total of $398.6 million, because FBTC’s $6.7 million inflow partly offset it. Cointelegraph reported it as IBIT’s largest outflow since June.

Source: DefiLlama ETF flow data, latest reported flow day November 2, 2026, as of about 09:25 UTC November 3. The window covers five trading sessions.

• Week deep in the red: The four funds lost $680.8 million over the five sessions, about $136.2 million per session.

• All funds: Across every spot fund, the five sessions totalled −$711.3 million. The other eight funds accounted for the remaining −$30.5 million.

Technicals: BTC Slips Back Toward Its 200-Day Trend

Source: Indicators calculated on DefiLlama completed daily closes through November 2, 2026.

Moving Averages Across Timeframes

Source: Simple averages calculated on CryptoQuant daily closes (all exchanges, BTC/$spot), against the CryptoQuant November 2 close of $76,687. The 3D and 1W averages reflect the candles completed on November 1. The next 3D candle completes on November 4 and the next weekly candle on November 8. Thanks to CryptoQuant for the data. The DefiLlama close used elsewhere in this edition is $76,707. Percentages show price versus each average.

• 50-week cushion thins: Price sits 1.25% above the 50-week average, down from 3.31% at the November 1 weekly close.

• Overhead cluster: The 1D 20 and 50 and the 3D 20 sit between $80,529 and $81,927. Strategy’s $80,846 average purchase price for the week falls inside that band.

For technical analysis from a wide range of analysts, see the CryptoQuant QuickTake community.

Coinjuice Lens: Corporate Treasuries

Strategy’s week showed how bitcoin buying now competes with the company’s other capital needs. Share sales raised about $164 million, of which $65.5 million went to bitcoin and $98.5 million to $Cash. STRC buybacks drawn from cash took $208.2 million. ETF holders carry no such balance sheet and simply redeem. Coinjuice’s MSTR digital credit trading guide explains how Strategy’s preferred shares connect its credit to its bitcoin buying. Treasury buyers paid above the current price while ETF holders sold, splitting the institutional bid.

Readers looking to prepare for a test of the 200-day EMA can start with the Coinjuice ebook, Bitcoin Trading Without Leverage, now 15% off with the code TRADE15OFF, or go deeper with a Coinjuice subscription, currently 30% off the annual plan, where we start and complete trades and you will learn to snipe them independently.

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News Behind Today’s Read

• ‘We found room for even more orange’: Michael Saylor’s Strategy scoops up another 811 bitcoin for $65.5 million (The Block). Source for the 811 BTC purchase, the MSTR share sales, the STRC buyback and the $Reserve balance, alongside Strategy’s 8-K filing.

• Strive inches closer to becoming second-largest public bitcoin holder after latest $10 million buy (The Block). Source for Strive’s 124 BTC purchase, its first SATS sales and the treasury rankings, alongside Strive’s SEC filing.

• Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million in outflows Friday, and 2026 is barely green now (CoinDesk). Source for the year-to-date inflow erased on October 30, the Coinbase premium reading and the MSCI exclusion risk.

Continue the read: Nov. 2 · Oct. 31 · Oct. 30

Market Snapshot

Data as of November 3, 2026, about 06:03 UTC, DefiLlama. DeFi TVL is a fresh snapshot and is not directly comparable with earlier editions’ figures.

This article was developed with the support of artificial intelligence tools as part of Coinjuice’s editorial process and reviewed by our editorial team before publication.