Quick summary
Bitcoin lost the $70,600 line in the sand and sits at $68,000
Price is right on the 200-week moving average
The extended support line also comes in at $68,000
The bounce must reclaim $71,000 by mid to late November if not it shows price weakness
$70,600 was the line in the sand. Bitcoin is at $68,000. Meltdown or bounce?
Recorded live Nov 12, published on Coinjuice Nov 13. You’re watching this after the move. Hit the bell to catch the next one live.
Massive Meltdown or a Bounce
On Nov 12 I said Bitcoin is on the cusp of either a massive meltdown or a bounce, and the next few days will dictate what it does for the next few months, if not longer. $70,600 was the line in the sand. Price is now at $68,000, right on the 200-week moving average. On Nov 12 I extended a support line that comes in around $68,000, and I’ll cover it on the Nov 13 stream. The bounce still has to reclaim around $71,000 by mid to late November.
Easy on the leverage. We’re not making predictions. We’re just planning for potential outcomes.
What We Covered
Moving averages: The weekly is at $75,000 and the 200-week at $68,000. Bitcoin didn’t go on a 300% run first, so being below isn’t cause for concern on its own.
The concern: Below the support line, a bounce off the 200, then resistance. That tells me we go lower.
Bitcoin vs S&P: This is the best S&P performance in a Bitcoin bear market since 2014 to 2017. Watch 0.12.
Tesla: At $393, I don’t see it going higher than $474. Basically 20 odd percent.
Google: It’s breaking out against Bitcoin, heading to 0.058.
Gold: If 71 is lost and 70 is lost, we can go down from 19 to 14 ounces.
Hype: A 55-day descending wedge with until Nov 15. I took a small buy.
Dog: It’s below the trend line, so I’m open for a full retracement to 55.
Nobody really knows, and what happens happens.
Recorded live Nov 12.
FAQ
What level did Bitcoin need to hold?
$70,600 was the line in the sand. At a minimum it could come to $69,500, but I don’t really like that. If we don’t get the bounce now, it’s probably over. Update, Nov 13: There was no bounce. Both levels were lost, and price sits around $68,000.
Is Bitcoin below the moving average a bad sign?
There’s a big difference when Bitcoin goes on a run of 300% and then goes below the moving average. This time it didn’t go on a 300% run first. So coming below the moving average right now is not cause for concern to me. Update, Nov 13: Price is now testing the 200-week moving average at $68,000.
What’s the bearish scenario?
If we get below this support line, then bounce off the 200 and find resistance along these lines, that’s telling me we’re going lower. We could also panic down towards limit four very, very quickly. Update, Nov 13: The support line is lost and price is at the 200-week, where an extended support line also comes in around $68,000. The bounce still has to reclaim $71,000 by mid to late November.
Why is everyone saying Bitcoin should go lower?
I think this is one giant fight between people who sold around here, believe they should get their entries lower, and got caught off guard. Technically the fundamentals dictate it shouldn’t go lower at this point. But it’s Bitcoin, so it can do what it wants. There’s so much FUD. It’s incredible.
Are stocks a better hold than Bitcoin right now?
I’m seeing a lot of the top MAG7 stocks in a bullish posture against Bitcoin. Google is breaking out to 0.058, and Tesla has a maximum of 20% left, up to $474. If the S&P reclaims 0.12 against Bitcoin, it might be the better hold for a while.
Has Bitcoin been here before?
The prior diamond around the lows had the same argument with the bears. They wanted $40,000 and didn’t get it. This structure has been playing out for 279 days, with the low coming after 264, arguably Bitcoin’s fastest bear market ever.
Disclaimer
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
