Quick summary
Bitcoin was rejected twice at $81K and sits between the 50-day and 50-week moving averages
A 4-hour diamond converges around November 3rd
A breakdown targets $76K; reclaiming $81K opens $86–87K
Holding $79.4K and reaching $85K would signal strength
Recorded live Oct 29. LIVE viewers will get the levels first. Be sure to subscribe and hit the bell for the next one.
Before this latest drop in BTC, we made a plan for it.
Bitcoin’s second rejection at $81K and a diamond tightening on the 4-hour chart, with a look at why November 3rd matters and how this pullback compares to 2023’s support crack.
Here’s what we covered:
The October 22nd support crack, the diamond’s path to $76K, why October’s corrections still look healthy, Hyperliquid’s December setup toward €128, a quick check on $DOG, Nvidia priced in Bitcoin, and the June fractal Bitcoin keeps tracking.
FAQ
What level does Bitcoin need to hold?
$81K was the line. Bitcoin failed to hold it after the last stream and was rejected again on the retest. The plan: reclaiming it keeps the bullish case alive, while another failure could trigger a short panic move toward Limit 1.
What’s the next upside target for Bitcoin?
If Bitcoin gets back above $81K, it will probably track to $86–87K. Holding the $79.4K low and reaching $85K would suggest November could be a strong month.
What’s the bearish scenario?
The diamond resolves lower, taking price to Limit 1 around $76K, still above the 50-week moving average, around November 5th. If price breaks below the support line and loses the $75.8K area, Limits 2 and 3 open up.
Why does the 10% correction range matter?
Since the run from $62K, Bitcoin has rallied 30% and corrected within 8%, then rallied 15–16% and corrected within 9%. That pattern still points higher. A correction beyond 10%, roughly $78K, is where concern starts.
What happened with Hyperliquid’s wedge?
Hyperliquid’s bearish ascending wedge invalidated on August 17th when price moved back inside instead of breaking down. It then rallied, consolidated for 22 days in a descending wedge, and broke out past its first target. Watch for resistance at €86 around December 12–14th. Holding that as support could open a move toward €128.
How does this compare to 2023?
In 2023, Bitcoin cracked a similar support line, fell 10% in three days, then recovered 10% just as fast. This time the move is less violent: price dipped slightly and stayed there, which may point to a stronger market.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
