Quick summary
Bitcoin is one year, one month into its bear market
It needs to hold above $70,600, and that limit rises every day
It needs to get back above the support line by December 2nd or 5th
I read it as a diamond bottom, with a minimum of $86,000 if buyers win
Is Bitcoin going to store value reliably or not?
Bulls and bears are arguing again. That much is now obvious, and the chart is drawing it as a diamond.
The bears sold the top and missed the bottom. Now they want lower prices to justify their bearishness. Don’t listen to influencers with agendas.
Recorded live Nov 11, published Nov 12. You’re watching this after the move. Hit the bell to catch the next one live.
Bitcoin Is Having Its Argument Right Now
A market is just an argument between buyers and sellers.
Big-time personalities who sold at $115,000 and $120,000 want lower prices, and MARA are offloading Bitcoin. To me, this looks like a diamond bottom.
If the sellers get $58,000, it’s probably going to $45,000. If the buyers win, we hover at $86,000 to $88,000, and then maybe a retest of $70,000 range again, and then the argument is over. If BTC cracks $70.9K the argument is likely over too. Theoretically, buyers are infinite and sellers are limited, but this time the sellers have large followings.
It’s Crunch Time for Bitcoin
Bitcoin: It needs to hold above $70,600, and that limit rises every day until 5 December.
Support line: It’s around $76,000 now and $73,800 by the end of November. We need to be back above it by December 2nd or 5th.
Diamond bottom: If the pattern breaks out, it could move the length of the diamond, 41%. That’s a minimum of $86,000 again and a possible high of around $98,000.
Bitcoin vs gold: My only reservation. I’m bearish until 18 ounces or BTC shows signs it is bullish versus gold.
Nvidia: It’s entered the box posted on 4 August on Coinjuice X. Below the trend line, limit two at $147 is the target.
Dog: It went down 61%, in line with the Fibonacci retracement. That’s probably the bottom any lower are risk averse entries.
Tesla: It’s bouncing 5%, and needs $382, $388 and $408 before a move to $480.
Going below $70,000 is dangerous, and I don’t think it’s the likely outcome.
FAQ
What level does Bitcoin need to hold?
$70,600. With every day that passes, that limit has to increase to $71,000, then $72,000. By December 2nd or 5th, we have to get back above the prior support line. Update, Nov 12: [current price]. Still above $70,600 / Broke $70,600.
What’s the next upside target for Bitcoin?
A minimum of $86,000 again. That’s a 41% base, and it’s been respected twice since March 2025. Once we break out, we could hover at $86,000 to $88,000, retest $70,000, and then the argument is over.
What’s the bearish scenario?
If Bitcoin goes down to $58,000, it’s probably going to $45,000. At $58,000, it’s basically 10% away from $52,000, and people may have to sell to cut their losses, which could take it down to $28,000. That’s a complete collapse, and I don’t think it’s the likely outcome.
Why do influencers want lower prices?
A lot of them sold at $100,000, $115,000 and $120,000, and they’re not even interested in Bitcoin anymore. More than 95% of their followers have either sold their Bitcoin or don’t have any to sell, so what they can do is convince the larger holders to sell. On top of that, players like Mara are offloading like 15,000 Bitcoin.
Is Bitcoin weaker than gold?
I’m bearish on Bitcoin versus gold until it touches 18 ounces. If it goes from 18 ounces to 19 ounces, that would signal it’s going back up. Gold itself is doing boring things, and I think there’s more upside in it as it is in a decending wedge itself.
How does this bear market compare to prior cycles?
Bitcoin topped on October 6th or 10th, so we’re one year, one month through, and bear markets have always lasted more or less a year. Bitcoin has fallen less than in prior cycles, which shows it’s stronger. The sellers of the past aren’t in the market anymore, and that leaves the diamond hands.
Disclaimer
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
