Quick summary
One year and one month on from BTC ATH $126,000, Bitcoin sits about 40% lower
The $58,000 low was a 52% cut, not 70 to 90%
$70,600 is the line: if it holds, the diamond targets $98,000
The Fisher sits at zero: a 75% chance the bottom is in
One year and one month from the $126,000 high. Is Bitcoin ahead of schedule?
This video was recorded live on Nov 10 and published Nov 11. Follow and hit the bell to catch the next one live: live viewers get the levels first.
I Think It’s Ahead of Schedule
We are officially a year and one month from the $126,000 high. If $58,000 was the cycle low, that’s a 52% cut from the high versus the prior 70, 80 and 90% falls. On Nov 10, we were 40ish% from that level.
The trend line that starts at $58,000 and makes a higher low at $62,500 sits at $70,600. We do not want to get below it. If it holds, I’m looking at one giant diamond bottom, and that’s a 36% move to around $98,000 to $99,000. If we crack through $71,000-$70,600, I can see us going to $60,000-$58,000.
What We Covered
Fisher oscillator: On the three-month, we are at exactly zero. I’d say there’s a 75% chance the bottom is in
Bitcoin vs gold: For Bitcoin to go to $90,000, it needs to front run gold
Gold: There’s a very big chance gold won’t go higher than $4,300 and drops to $4,000 over the next two months
HYPE: From our video where we said resistance at €84, we’re already down 22%.
Nvidia vs Bitcoin: Since Aug 18, Bitcoin has been the better hold by 28%.
Tesla: Elon is Elon, and he’s probably going to drag this out as long as he can.
MSTR: It’s still below $132, with a gap at $113 to $116. Limit one, two and three are set.
Bitcoin is at a very fine point, and that’s why you need to watch it with me every day.
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FAQ
What level does Bitcoin need to hold?
$70,600. That’s the trend line that starts at $58,000 and makes a higher low at $62,500. It should not be broken. It’s crucial, really crucial for Bitcoin. Update, Nov 11: $70,600 held. Price reached about $75,400 and sits around $73,800.
What’s the upside target if the diamond plays out?
A diamond formed at the bottom is normally bullish, and it breaks out at a minimum to the length of the diamond. In this case, that’s a 36% move, which should take us to around $98,000 to $99,000. It also looks like the cup and handle we spoke about two videos ago. Update, Nov 11: Pending. No breakout yet.
What’s the bearish scenario?
$71,000 is my line in the sand. If we crack through it, I can see us going to $60,000, and the Fisher allows for a further 20%, to $57,000. We also don’t want to get into the descending wedge below $73,000: if $73,000 is sold, it will go down. Update, Nov 11: Not triggered. The low held near $73,700.
Is the Bitcoin bottom in?
On the three-month Fisher, we are at exactly zero, and something tells me we should be bottoming at this point. When it hit zero in April 2023, Bitcoin went up a further 320%. I’d say there’s a 75% chance the bottom is in and we’re due a trend change to the upside. Update, Nov 11: Pending until the three-month candle closes.
Is Bitcoin outperforming Nvidia?
Since Aug 18, we’ve been bearish on Nvidia versus Bitcoin, and Bitcoin has been the better hold by 28%. Nvidia is 18% down and struggling to keep its trend line. We bought in at $183 with a limit order, and the day after it closed the gap.
How does this cycle compare to past ones?
The $58,000 bottom, if that was the cycle low, is a 52% cut from the high. The prior cycles fell 70, 80 and 90%. So either Bitcoin is really ahead of schedule, or something else is playing out. I think it’s ahead of schedule.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Written by
Andrew Kamsky
Andrew Kamsky is a Bitcoin analyst. He spent a decade in traditional finance across a Big Four firm and a listed fintech bank before going deep on Bitcoin full-time.
